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Guessing on Google. Elections 2010
|Very soon in Ukraine the next presidential elections will take place. Active political propaganda in mass media, huge billboards with political slogans... Even prior to official pre-election race by various companies in Ukraine sociological surveys and researches with the purpose to reveal the most probable winner at an election of the president of Ukraine 2010 were also abroad conducted. And know, than the Internet is good? That, even without having huge staff of sociological institute, everyone can define for himself what of candidates for president enjoys popularity at the population of the country. And with it we will be helped by Google statistics.|
It is known that by means of search engines people look for the interesting information on the Internet. Google – one of the most popular search services in Ukraine therefore its statistics allows with a sufficient accuracy to judge popularity of these or those search queries in Ukraine.
Here, for example, the schedule of popularity of a search query "elections" across Ukraine since 2004 to the present.
Numbers on this and the subsequent schedules show a share of searches in the set inquiry in total number of the searches executed in Google in a definite time. These numbers do not represent absolute values of volume of search as data are provided in the normalized look and are displayed on a scale from 0 to 100.
Each point on graphics corresponds to the maximum value, i.e. 100. For example, suppose, that interest in a search query of a ski sharply increased in November. The system appoints to this peak value 100. Now we will assume that in December there was a considerable decrease in interest and the following peak was approximately twice less than the November. To this peak value 50, etc. is appointed. In the absence of enough data value 0 is displayed. The numbers specified near search queries over the schedule represent total values.
Apparently from the given schedule, the maximum quantity of search queries "elections" fell on November, 2004. In the period of the end of fall – began winters 2004 there were events which became history as "orange revolution". The following peak on graphics, March, 2006, testifies to high interest of Internet users from Ukraine to the next parliamentary elections. The peaks falling on October, 2007 and May, 2008 are connected with early parliamentary elections in Ukraine. Thus, this schedule very visually illustrates a political situation in the country and what interest it causes in the population. As you can see, in comparison with 2004 popularity of inquiry "elections" it is very small now.
Internet ratings of candidates for president of Ukraine on elections 2010 it is made much. We with you will address to Google statistics again. Let's track together dynamics of popularity of the search queries connected with surnames of the "main" candidates for president since 2004 and up to now.
Pay attention, popularity of inquiries, specified on this schedule, more or less corresponds in "distribution of forces" following the results of presidential elections 2004. Whether proceeding from it it is possible to assume, what there is a certain dependence between popularity of inquiry with a surname of the candidate and his real popularity among the population?
Let's look at the schedule of dynamics of popularity of the same inquiries for the last year, the last 3 months and month.
Apparently from these schedules, quantity of search queries in Google connected with a surname of the candidate for president Yulia Tymoshenko higher, than amount of the inquiries connected with surnames of other candidates.
And now we will address to figures of official sociological researches. So, according to the poll conducted by the Center of social and market researches of "SOTsIS" from September 20 to October 1 28,7% of respondents, Yu. Tymoshenko — 19%, A. Yatsenyuk — 8,2%, P. Simonenko — 3,6%, V. Litvin — 2,9%, V. Yushchenko — 2,8%, S. Tigipko — 2,6% are ready to vote for V. Yanukovych.
Survey conducted by JSC FOM — Ukraina during the period from September 26 to October 4 showed, for V. Yanukovych 26,8% of respondents, are ready to vote for Yu. Tymoshenko — 15,6%. The leader of "The front of changes" A. Yatsenyuk is supported by 9,3% of Ukrainians.
According to survey of R&B Group conducted on October 2-12 for the party leader of regions 30,2% of respondents, 18,5% — are ready to vote for the leader of BYuT. Thus 8,9% would support the leader of "The front of changes" A. Yatsenyuk, 4,1% — the leader Blok of the left forces of P. Simonenko, 3,1% — the current president V. Yushchenko, 2,7% — S. Tigipko, 2,4% — the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, V. Litvin.
According to poll from the TNS company, carried out from December 7 to December 14, 2009, for V. Yanukovych are ready to give votes of 26,3% of voters, for Yu. Tymoshenko of 18,6% and for S. Tigipko — 5,6%. Further follow V. Yushchenko from 4,2% of a rating, A. Yatsenyuk from 4,1%, V. Litvin from 3,1% and P. Simonenko from 2,3%.
On January 17, 2010 at 20:00 doors of polling precincts were closed behind the last citizens who this day expressed the will by ballot on the basis of general, equal and a direct suffrage (according to the Constitution of Ukraine). Skurpulezny counting of votes which can take not one day is from this point begun.
As it is reported on the official site of the CEC, according to 91,16% of the processed protocols 22 279 455 voters across Ukraine took part in vote. 1,63% of bulletins across Ukraine are recognized as the invalid.
On elections on January 17 in Ukraine the National exit poll '2010 which is organized in common by Democratic Initiatives Fund, the Kiev international institute of sociology and the Ukrainian center of economic and political researches of Alexander Razumkov was carried out.
According to the chairman of Democratic Initiatives fund, Ilko Kucheriva, all 12 thousand 546 respondents on 240 polling precincts are interrogated. On each site 74 voters are on average interrogated. The statistical error of selection does not exceed 1,3%.
The picture of data received when comparing results of vote of urban and country people is interesting. As far as figures on this or that candidate differ?
According to the data published on the official site of the National exit poll' 2010 the urban and country people of Ukraine voted as follows:
Data of the National exit poll ’2010 as the settlement (in %)
What of all this can draw a conclusion? Having considered the provided data of the National exit poll' 2010 and schedules of dynamics of popularity of the corresponding search queries it is possible to notice that such candidates as Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, Tigipko, take the leading positions not only according to the CEC and an exit poll, but also according to "Google-version". For example, according to an exit poll residents of villages gave the majority of the votes of Yulia Tymoshenko, on the second place - Victor Yanukovych, and here on the third from 9,4% of voices - Yushchenko though by results of poll of urban population the three of leaders looks as Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, Tigipko. Why figures so differ how you think?
The statistics of Google shows that users often enter the inquiries connected with such popular keywords as "timoshenko" and "yanukovich" into a search line. And which information interests users of a Google search engine? We suggest to look at statistics of the most popular search queries connected with the terms "timoshenko" and "yanukovich" for the last 30 days across Ukraine:
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